Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe

S. Amirpour Haredasht, J.M. Barrios, J. Farifteh, P. Maes, J. Clement, W.W. Verstraeten, K. Tersago, M. Van Ranst, P. Coppin, D. Berckmans, J. Aerts

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Abstract

The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (¿2 tests, p <10-6). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)499-514
Number of pages16
JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volume10
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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Arvicolinae
Puumala virus
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome
Hantavirus
Zoonoses
Climate
Population
Rodentia
Infection

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Amirpour Haredasht, S., Barrios, J. M., Farifteh, J., Maes, P., Clement, J., Verstraeten, W. W., ... Aerts, J. (2013). Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 10(2), 499-514. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10020499
Amirpour Haredasht, S. ; Barrios, J.M. ; Farifteh, J. ; Maes, P. ; Clement, J. ; Verstraeten, W.W. ; Tersago, K. ; Van Ranst, M. ; Coppin, P. ; Berckmans, D. ; Aerts, J. / Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2013 ; Vol. 10, No. 2. pp. 499-514.
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abstract = "The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86{\%}). The output of the GARP models based on the 50{\%} subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75{\%}. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (¿2 tests, p <10-6). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.",
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Amirpour Haredasht, S, Barrios, JM, Farifteh, J, Maes, P, Clement, J, Verstraeten, WW, Tersago, K, Van Ranst, M, Coppin, P, Berckmans, D & Aerts, J 2013, 'Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe', International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 499-514. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10020499

Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe. / Amirpour Haredasht, S.; Barrios, J.M.; Farifteh, J.; Maes, P.; Clement, J.; Verstraeten, W.W.; Tersago, K.; Van Ranst, M.; Coppin, P.; Berckmans, D.; Aerts, J.

In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 10, No. 2, 2013, p. 499-514.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Amirpour Haredasht, S.

AU - Barrios, J.M.

AU - Farifteh, J.

AU - Maes, P.

AU - Clement, J.

AU - Verstraeten, W.W.

AU - Tersago, K.

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AU - Berckmans, D.

AU - Aerts, J.

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AB - The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (¿2 tests, p <10-6). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

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SN - 1660-4601

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Amirpour Haredasht S, Barrios JM, Farifteh J, Maes P, Clement J, Verstraeten WW et al. Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2013;10(2):499-514. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10020499