Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes

The goal of this paper is to derive a risk map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity and use the inhomogeneous J–function to test for inter-point interactions. We then formulate a cluster model, and deconvolve in order to calculate the risk map. The model is validated using the leave-one-out principle.