TY - JOUR
T1 - Development of a Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Peritoneally Metastasized Colorectal Cancer Treated with Cytoreductive Surgery and HIPEC
AU - Simkens, Geert A.
AU - van Oudheusden, Thijs R.
AU - Nieboer, Daan
AU - Steyerberg, Ewout W.
AU - Rutten, Harm J.
AU - Luyer, Misha D.
AU - Nienhuijs, Simon W.
AU - de Hingh, Ignace H.
PY - 2016/12/1
Y1 - 2016/12/1
N2 - Background: With the introduction of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), long-term survival can be achieved in selected patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (PM). Patient selection and outcome may be improved significantly with a tool that adequately predicts survival in these patients. This study was designed to validate the peritoneal surface disease severity score (PSDSS) in patients with colorectal PM treated with CRS + HIPEC. If performance of the PSDSS was suboptimal (c < 0.7), we aimed to develop a new prognostic model. Methods: Patients were included if they had colorectal PM and underwent CRS + HIPEC with intended complete cytoreduction in a Dutch tertiary hospital between 2007 and 2015. Statistical analyses were performed with R-software. Results: A total of 200 patients underwent CRS + HIPEC. External validation of the PSDSS showed a Harrell’s c statistic of 0.62. After analysis, four parameters appeared prognostically relevant factors for overall survival: age, PCI score, locoregional lymph node status, and signet ring cell histology. The weighted relevance of these parameters was turned into a prognostic nomogram that we termed colorectal peritoneal metastases prognostic surgical score (COMPASS). The COMPASS differentiated well and showed a Harrell’s c statistic of 0.72 with a calibration plot showing good agreement. Conclusions: This study externally validated the PSDSS and developed a new prognostic score, the COMPASS. This pre-cytoreduction nomogram was more accurate than PSDSS in predicting survival of patients undergoing CRS + HIPEC. It can be used as tool to assist in the decision about continuing cytoreduction and HIPEC and can provide valuable information in the follow-up period after CRS + HIPEC.
AB - Background: With the introduction of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), long-term survival can be achieved in selected patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (PM). Patient selection and outcome may be improved significantly with a tool that adequately predicts survival in these patients. This study was designed to validate the peritoneal surface disease severity score (PSDSS) in patients with colorectal PM treated with CRS + HIPEC. If performance of the PSDSS was suboptimal (c < 0.7), we aimed to develop a new prognostic model. Methods: Patients were included if they had colorectal PM and underwent CRS + HIPEC with intended complete cytoreduction in a Dutch tertiary hospital between 2007 and 2015. Statistical analyses were performed with R-software. Results: A total of 200 patients underwent CRS + HIPEC. External validation of the PSDSS showed a Harrell’s c statistic of 0.62. After analysis, four parameters appeared prognostically relevant factors for overall survival: age, PCI score, locoregional lymph node status, and signet ring cell histology. The weighted relevance of these parameters was turned into a prognostic nomogram that we termed colorectal peritoneal metastases prognostic surgical score (COMPASS). The COMPASS differentiated well and showed a Harrell’s c statistic of 0.72 with a calibration plot showing good agreement. Conclusions: This study externally validated the PSDSS and developed a new prognostic score, the COMPASS. This pre-cytoreduction nomogram was more accurate than PSDSS in predicting survival of patients undergoing CRS + HIPEC. It can be used as tool to assist in the decision about continuing cytoreduction and HIPEC and can provide valuable information in the follow-up period after CRS + HIPEC.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962285913&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1245/s10434-016-5211-6
DO - 10.1245/s10434-016-5211-6
M3 - Article
C2 - 27027308
AN - SCOPUS:84962285913
SN - 1068-9265
VL - 23
SP - 4214
EP - 4221
JO - Annals of Surgical Oncology
JF - Annals of Surgical Oncology
IS - 13
ER -
