Conditional Multivariate Elliptical Copulas to Model Residential Load Profiles From Smart Meter Data

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)
249 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The development of thorough probability models for highly volatile load profiles based on smart meter data is crucial to obtain accurate results when developing grid planning and operational frameworks. This paper proposes a new top-down modeling approach for residential load profiles (RLPs) based on multivariate elliptical copulas that can capture the complex correlation between time steps. This model can be used to generate individual and aggregated daily RLPs to simulate the operation of medium and low voltage distribution networks in flexible time horizons. Additionally, the proposed model can simulate RLPs conditioned to an annual energy consumption and daily weather profiles such as solar irradiance and temperature. The simulated daily profiles accurately capture the seasonal, weekends, and weekdays power consumption trends. Five databases with actual smart meter measurements at different time resolutions have been used for the model's validation. Results show that the proposed model can successfully replicate statistical properties such as autocorrelation of the time series, and load consumption probability densities for different seasons. The proposed model outperforms other multivariate state-of-the-art methods, such as Gaussian Mixture Models, by one order of magnitude in two different distance metrics for probability distributions.
Original languageEnglish
Article number9425537
Pages (from-to)4280-4294
Number of pages15
JournalIEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
Volume12
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 2021

Keywords

  • Load modeling
  • Energy consumption
  • Correlation
  • Power demand
  • Smart meters
  • Mathematical model
  • Data models
  • stochastic modeling
  • Multivariate copulas
  • Gaussian mixture model
  • load modeling

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Conditional Multivariate Elliptical Copulas to Model Residential Load Profiles From Smart Meter Data'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this