Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities

F.P.A. Coolen, M.J. Newby

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

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Abstract

The Bayesian framework for statistical inference offers the possibility of taking expert opinions into account, and is therefore attractive in practical problems concerning reliability of technical systems. Probability is the only language in which uncertainty can be consistently expressed, and this requires the use of prior distributions for reporting expert opinions. In this paper an extension of the standard Bayesian approach based on the theory of imprecise probabilities and intervals of measures is developed. It is shown that this is necessary to take the nature of experts knowledge into account. The application of this approach in reliability theory is outlined. The concept of imprecise probabilities allows us to accept a range of possible probabilities from an expert for events of interest and thus makes the elicitation of prior information simpler and clearer. The method also provides a consistent way for combining the opinions of several experts.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationEindhoven
PublisherTechnische Universiteit Eindhoven
Number of pages23
Publication statusPublished - 1992

Publication series

NameMemorandum COSOR
Volume9250
ISSN (Print)0926-4493

Fingerprint

Imprecise probabilities
Expert opinion
Uncertainty
Bayesian approach
Prior information
Language
Statistical inference
Expert knowledge

Cite this

Coolen, F. P. A., & Newby, M. J. (1992). Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities. (Memorandum COSOR; Vol. 9250). Eindhoven: Technische Universiteit Eindhoven.
Coolen, F.P.A. ; Newby, M.J. / Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities. Eindhoven : Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, 1992. 23 p. (Memorandum COSOR).
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Coolen, FPA & Newby, MJ 1992, Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities. Memorandum COSOR, vol. 9250, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven.

Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities. / Coolen, F.P.A.; Newby, M.J.

Eindhoven : Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, 1992. 23 p. (Memorandum COSOR; Vol. 9250).

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

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Coolen FPA, Newby MJ. Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities. Eindhoven: Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, 1992. 23 p. (Memorandum COSOR).