Assessing microclimate thresholds for heritage preventive conservation to achieve sustainable and energy efficiency goals in a changing climate

This research addresses the issue of the heritage preventive conservation in the perspective of energy sustainability, for contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and towards the EU Green Deal. The study analyses and compares four cases associated with different microclimate thresholds as suggested by the standard EN 16893:2018 (Cases 1–3) and as derived from the outputs of three degradation models for preserving paper, wood, and canvas paintings (Case 4). Weather-based indices (degree and gram days) were calculated to estimate trends in the potential energy demand of collection facilities in three European cities belonging to different Köppen-Geiger climate zones (Cfb, Csa, and Dfb), under recent past (1981–2010) and near/far future climate scenarios (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The findings suggest that adapting facilities’ management strategies to focus on collections preservation can facilitate the achievement of 5 out of 17 SDGs, offering a viable alternative to costly energy retrofits and encouraging the development of shared solutions for similar facilities in the same climate zone. The results can contribute to inform the revision of EN 16893 and to face major challenges such as the preservation of paper collections in southern latitudes.