Assessing climate model projections: state of the art and philosophical reflections

J.K. Katzav, H. Dijkstra, A.T.J. Laat

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

The present paper draws on climate science and the philosophy of science in order to evaluate climate-model-based approaches to assessing climate projections. We analyze the difficulties that arise in such assessment and outline criteria of adequacy for approaches to it. In addition, we offer a critical overview of the approaches used in the IPCC working group one fourth report, including the confidence building, Bayesian and likelihood approaches. Finally, we consider approaches that do not feature in the IPCC reports, including three approaches drawn from the philosophy of science. We find that all available approaches face substantial challenges, with IPCC approaches having as a primary source of difficulty their goal of providing probabilistic assessments.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)258-276
JournalStudies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics
Volume43
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

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