Application and evaluation of a probabilistic forecasting model for expected local PV penetration levels

R. Bernards, R. Verweij, E. Coster, J. Morren, J.G. Slootweg

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Abstract

A data driven scenario-based approach is applied to predict the adoption and expected local penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) installations in an actual distribution network area in the Netherlands. Local PV adoption probabilities are scaled according to a trained statistical model. Integration of this model in the scenarios is shown to provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In addition, a probabilistic forecast is simulated highlighting the local impact on the electricity network for several future scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2101-2105
JournalCIRED - Open Access Proceedings Journal
Volume2017
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 Jun 2017
Event24th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, CIRED 2017 - SSE, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Duration: 12 Jun 201715 Jun 2017
Conference number: 24
http://www.cired-2017.org/

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Electric power distribution
Electricity
Statistical Models

Cite this

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Application and evaluation of a probabilistic forecasting model for expected local PV penetration levels. / Bernards, R.; Verweij, R.; Coster, E.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

In: CIRED - Open Access Proceedings Journal, Vol. 2017, No. 1, 12.06.2017, p. 2101-2105.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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