Application and evaluation of a probabilistic forecasting model for expected local PV penetration levels

R. Bernards; R. Verweij; E. Coster; J. Morren; J.G. Slootweg

doi:10.1049/oap-cired.2017.0600

Application and evaluation of a probabilistic forecasting model for expected local PV penetration levels

R. Bernards, R. Verweij, E. Coster, J. Morren, J.G. Slootweg

Electrical Energy Systems

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Abstract

A data driven scenario-based approach is applied to predict the adoption and expected local penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) installations in an actual distribution network area in the Netherlands. Local PV adoption probabilities are scaled according to a trained statistical model. Integration of this model in the scenarios is shown to provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In addition, a probabilistic forecast is simulated highlighting the local impact on the electricity network for several future scenarios.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2101-2105
Number of pages	5
Journal	CIRED - Open Access Proceedings Journal
Volume	2017
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1049/oap-cired.2017.0600
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2017
Event	24th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2017) - SSE, Glasgow, United Kingdom Duration: 12 Jun 2017 → 15 Jun 2017 Conference number: 24 http://www.cired-2017.org/

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10.1049/oap-cired.2017.0600

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Application and evaluation of a probabilistic forecasting model for expected local PV penetration levels

Abstract

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