A data driven scenario-based approach is applied to predict the adoption and expected local penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) installations in an actual distribution network area in the Netherlands. Local PV adoption probabilities are scaled according to a trained statistical model. Integration of this model in the scenarios is shown to provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In addition, a probabilistic forecast is simulated highlighting the local impact on the electricity network for several future scenarios.
|Number of pages||5|
|Journal||CIRED - Open Access Proceedings Journal|
|Publication status||Published - 1 Oct 2017|
|Event||24th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, CIRED 2017 - SSE, Glasgow, United Kingdom|
Duration: 12 Jun 2017 → 15 Jun 2017
Conference number: 24