An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating

Xinyi Mu; Dujuan Yang; Qi Han

doi:10.35490/EC3.2025.191

An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

This paper presents an agent-based model to simulate household decisions transitioning from gas-reliant heating. Households consider three options: installing a gas-free heat pump, adopting district, or doing nothing. The model integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior and Bayesian updating of household beliefs about technology performance, cost-effectiveness, and reliability. It also accommodates four decision-making styles—rational, satisficing, social, and conservative—that govern how households interpret information and manage risk. Results reveal how these styles, social influence, and belief updates drive adoption patterns and transition speed. Insights support targeted policies and interventions to accelerate the shift to sustainable heating technologies.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025
Editors	Ekaterina Petrova, Marijana Srećković, Pedro Meda, Ranjith K. Soman, Jakob Beetz, Jenn McArthur, Daniel Hall
Publisher	European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3)
Number of pages	7
ISBN (Electronic)	978-9-083451-31-2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.35490/EC3.2025.191
Publication status	Published - 2025
Event	European Conference on Computing in Construction, EC3 2025 and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on IT in Construction, 2025 - Porto, Portugal Duration: 14 Jul 2025 → 17 Jul 2025

Conference

Conference	European Conference on Computing in Construction, EC3 2025 and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on IT in Construction, 2025
Country/Territory	Portugal
City	Porto
Period	14/07/25 → 17/07/25

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025, European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3). All rights reserved.

Keywords

Agent-based modeling
Bayesian updating
decision-making
technology adoption

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10.35490/EC3.2025.191

pdfFinal published version, 746 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Mu, X., Yang, D., & Han, Q. (2025). An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating. In E. Petrova, M. Srećković, P. Meda, R. K. Soman, J. Beetz, J. McArthur, & D. Hall (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025 European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3). https://doi.org/10.35490/EC3.2025.191

Mu, Xinyi ; Yang, Dujuan ; Han, Qi. / An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption : Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating. Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025. editor / Ekaterina Petrova ; Marijana Srećković ; Pedro Meda ; Ranjith K. Soman ; Jakob Beetz ; Jenn McArthur ; Daniel Hall. European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3), 2025.

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title = "An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating",

abstract = "This paper presents an agent-based model to simulate household decisions transitioning from gas-reliant heating. Households consider three options: installing a gas-free heat pump, adopting district, or doing nothing. The model integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior and Bayesian updating of household beliefs about technology performance, cost-effectiveness, and reliability. It also accommodates four decision-making styles—rational, satisficing, social, and conservative—that govern how households interpret information and manage risk. Results reveal how these styles, social influence, and belief updates drive adoption patterns and transition speed. Insights support targeted policies and interventions to accelerate the shift to sustainable heating technologies.",

keywords = "Agent-based modeling, Bayesian updating, decision-making, technology adoption",

author = "Xinyi Mu and Dujuan Yang and Qi Han",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025, European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3). All rights reserved.; European Conference on Computing in Construction, EC3 2025 and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on IT in Construction, 2025 ; Conference date: 14-07-2025 Through 17-07-2025",

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doi = "10.35490/EC3.2025.191",

language = "English",

editor = "Ekaterina Petrova and Marijana Sre{\'c}kovi{\'c} and Pedro Meda and Soman, \{Ranjith K.\} and Jakob Beetz and Jenn McArthur and Daniel Hall",

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Mu, X , Yang, D & Han, Q 2025, An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating. in E Petrova, M Srećković, P Meda, RK Soman, J Beetz, J McArthur & D Hall (eds), Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025. European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3), European Conference on Computing in Construction, EC3 2025 and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on IT in Construction, 2025, Porto, Portugal, 14/07/25. https://doi.org/10.35490/EC3.2025.191

An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating. / Mu, Xinyi ; Yang, Dujuan ; Han, Qi.
Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025. ed. / Ekaterina Petrova; Marijana Srećković; Pedro Meda; Ranjith K. Soman; Jakob Beetz; Jenn McArthur; Daniel Hall. European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3), 2025.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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AU - Mu, Xinyi

AU - Yang, Dujuan

AU - Han, Qi

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - This paper presents an agent-based model to simulate household decisions transitioning from gas-reliant heating. Households consider three options: installing a gas-free heat pump, adopting district, or doing nothing. The model integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior and Bayesian updating of household beliefs about technology performance, cost-effectiveness, and reliability. It also accommodates four decision-making styles—rational, satisficing, social, and conservative—that govern how households interpret information and manage risk. Results reveal how these styles, social influence, and belief updates drive adoption patterns and transition speed. Insights support targeted policies and interventions to accelerate the shift to sustainable heating technologies.

AB - This paper presents an agent-based model to simulate household decisions transitioning from gas-reliant heating. Households consider three options: installing a gas-free heat pump, adopting district, or doing nothing. The model integrates the Theory of Planned Behavior and Bayesian updating of household beliefs about technology performance, cost-effectiveness, and reliability. It also accommodates four decision-making styles—rational, satisficing, social, and conservative—that govern how households interpret information and manage risk. Results reveal how these styles, social influence, and belief updates drive adoption patterns and transition speed. Insights support targeted policies and interventions to accelerate the shift to sustainable heating technologies.

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KW - Bayesian updating

KW - decision-making

KW - technology adoption

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DO - 10.35490/EC3.2025.191

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BT - Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025

A2 - Petrova, Ekaterina

A2 - Srećković, Marijana

A2 - Meda, Pedro

A2 - Soman, Ranjith K.

A2 - Beetz, Jakob

A2 - McArthur, Jenn

A2 - Hall, Daniel

PB - European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3)

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Mu X , Yang D , Han Q. An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating. In Petrova E, Srećković M, Meda P, Soman RK, Beetz J, McArthur J, Hall D, editors, Proceedings of the 2025 European Conference on Computing in Construction and 42nd International CIB W78 Conference on Information Technology in Construction, 2025. European Council on Computing in Construction (EC3). 2025 doi: 10.35490/EC3.2025.191

An Agent-based Simulation of Household Heating Adoption: Integrating Bayesian Belief Updating

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