Alternative methods of causal inference in a multi-agent model of land use decisions under conditions of uncertainty

L. Ma, T.A. Arentze, A.W.J. Borgers, H.J.P. Timmermans

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Most planning support tools for location decisions do not take uncertainty about the future distribution of land uses into account. To address this problem, the authors suggested a ‘Bayesian decision network’ approach, in which the uncertain future distribution of land use impacting the utility of any specific parcel of land for a particular land use is captured in terms of conditional probability distributions, representing the beliefs about the particular land use, conditional on a set of situational and contextual variables. The degree of uncertainty about the future distribution of land use is reflected by the uniformity of the probability distributions. We suggest a sampling method to address this problem and explore its performance against a simple expected value method in the context of a retail planning problem. The method involves calculating outcome variables for a solution considered under each of a number of random draws from the set of possible future spatial configurations of land uses. This paper specifies the sampling method, investigates the setting of parameters and explores the extent to which different ways of coping with uncertainty affects outcomes of decisions for a realistic case of retail planning. The results indicate that the sampling method can provide information about uncertainty. The degree of uncertainty indicates the range of the utility for a solution, thus the retail agent knows the maximum, average and minimum utility he can achieve for his decision. Furthermore, decisions to find the best option can be made based on different decision rules according to the retail agent’s risk attitude.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management Conference CUPUM 05, London
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherUniversity College London
Pagespaper203-1/16
Publication statusPublished - 2005
Event9th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management (CUPUM 2005), June 29-July 1, 2005, London, UK - CUPUM 2005, London, United Kingdom
Duration: 29 Jun 20051 Jul 2005

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management (CUPUM 2005), June 29-July 1, 2005, London, UK
Abbreviated titleCUPUM 2005
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period29/06/051/07/05

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