A two-step method for forecasting spare parts demand using information on component repairs

W. Romeijnders, R. Teunter, W. van Jaarsveld

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

58 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Forecasting spare parts demand is notoriously difficult, as demand is typically intermittent and lumpy. Specialized methods such as that by Croston are available, but these are not based on the repair operations that cause the intermittency and lumpiness of demand. In this paper, we do propose a method that, in addition to the demand for spare parts, considers the type of component repaired. This two-step forecasting method separately updates the average number of parts needed per repair and the number of repairs for each type of component. The method is tested in an empirical, comparative study for a service provider in the aviation industry. Our results show that the two-step method is one of the most accurate methods, and that it performs considerably better than Croston's method. Moreover, contrary to other methods, the two-step method can use information on planned maintenance and repair operations to reduce forecasts errors by up to 20%. We derive further analytical and simulation results that help explain the empirical findings.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)386-393
Number of pages8
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume220
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jul 2012
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Exponential smoothing
  • Forecasting
  • Intermittent demand
  • Two-step method

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