A system dynamics model of socio-technical regime transitions

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Formal modelling of sociotechnical transitions has so far focused either on reproducing known historical case studies or on generic transition models that encompass some of the characteristics of the underlying processes. This article presents a model that captures the unfolding dynamics of an existing technological regime and the emerging niches as they compete and respond to landscape pressures. The theoretical basis is the “Multi-Level Perspective” (MLP) framework. The development of new technologies in niches is endogenous and stochastic. Model analysis can be seen as a test of the dynamic consistency of the MLP substitution pathway. Simulation results are consistent with what MLP theory suggests and raise relevant questions and insights for future modelling work on transition pathways and theory development.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)202-233
JournalEnvironmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2011
Externally publishedYes


  • formal modelling
  • system dynamics
  • transition mechanisms
  • transition pathways


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