A longitudinal analysis of travel demand and its determinants in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

Dena Kasraian, Shivani Raghav, Bilal Yusuf, Eric J. Miller

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademic

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the development of travel demand from 1986 to 2016 at 5-year intervals in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA), by applying random effects models to a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level panel dataset. Vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and passenger kilometres travelled (PKT) are computed based on actual demand, congestion and equilibrium distances, using road and multi-modal transit networks. The findings show that VKT and PKT have grown in absolute and per trip terms. While average potential travel times by transit have decreased, auto travel times have increased. The majority of travel demand variations between the GTHA TAZs can be explained by population density, transit access, household income, share of households with zero cars and the population share of seniors. Travel demand determinants have been fairly stable over time, but vary significantly across space by degrees of urbanity, especially for VKT. The results emphasize the importance of developing area-specific land-use and transportation policies within a metropolitan region.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication23rd International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies (HKSTS)
Publication statusUnpublished - 8 Dec 2018
Externally publishedYes
Event23rd International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies (HKSTS) - The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Duration: 8 Dec 201810 Dec 2018
Conference number: 23rd

Conference

Conference23rd International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies (HKSTS)
CountryHong Kong
City Hong Kong
Period8/12/1810/12/18

Keywords

  • Travel demand
  • Vehicle kilometres travelled
  • Passenger kilometres travelled
  • longitudinal analysis
  • The Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

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