A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium

S. Amirpour Haredasht, J.M. Barrios, P. Maes, W.W. Verstraeten, J. Clement, G. Ducoffre, K. Lagrou, M. Van Ranst, P. Coppin, D. Berckmans, J.M.F.G. Aerts

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Abstract

ropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Population dynamics and infectious diseases in general, such as NE, have often been modelled with mechanistic SIR (Susceptible, Infective and Remove with immunity) models. Precipitation and temperature have been found to be indicators of NE, however most SIR models do not take them into account. The objective of this paper was to develop a dynamic model of incidences of NE in Belgium by taking into account climatological data. A multiple–input, single-output (MISO) transfer function was used to model the incidence of NE. In a first step, the NE cases were modelled based on data from 1996 until 2003 with an of 0.68. In the next step the MISO model was validated for incidences of NE in Belgium from 2003 to 2008 ( of 0.54). The output of the MISO models was the number of NE cases in Belgium over the time period 1996 until 2008 and the inputs were average measured monthly precipitation (mm), and temperature (°C) as well as estimated carrying capacity (vole ha-1). The monthly values of carrying capacity (K) were estimated for the whole period by using an existing mechanistic SIR model. K is related to the variation in seed production in Northern Europe, which has an effect on the population of bank voles. In the future, such modelling approaches may be used to predict and monitor forthcoming NE cases based on climate and vegetation data as a tool for prevention of NE cases.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)77-89
Number of pages12
JournalBiosystems Engineering
Volume109
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

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Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome
Arvicolinae
Belgium
Clethrionomys glareolus
Conservation of Natural Resources
SIR
angle of incidence
Incidence
Puumala virus
carrying capacity
Temperature
Population Dynamics
Climate
seed productivity
Communicable Diseases
Immunity
Seeds
Population dynamics
mechanistic models
Northern European region

Cite this

Amirpour Haredasht, S., Barrios, J. M., Maes, P., Verstraeten, W. W., Clement, J., Ducoffre, G., ... Aerts, J. M. F. G. (2011). A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium. Biosystems Engineering, 109(1), 77-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2011.02.004
Amirpour Haredasht, S. ; Barrios, J.M. ; Maes, P. ; Verstraeten, W.W. ; Clement, J. ; Ducoffre, G. ; Lagrou, K. ; Van Ranst, M. ; Coppin, P. ; Berckmans, D. ; Aerts, J.M.F.G. / A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium. In: Biosystems Engineering. 2011 ; Vol. 109, No. 1. pp. 77-89.
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abstract = "ropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Population dynamics and infectious diseases in general, such as NE, have often been modelled with mechanistic SIR (Susceptible, Infective and Remove with immunity) models. Precipitation and temperature have been found to be indicators of NE, however most SIR models do not take them into account. The objective of this paper was to develop a dynamic model of incidences of NE in Belgium by taking into account climatological data. A multiple–input, single-output (MISO) transfer function was used to model the incidence of NE. In a first step, the NE cases were modelled based on data from 1996 until 2003 with an of 0.68. In the next step the MISO model was validated for incidences of NE in Belgium from 2003 to 2008 ( of 0.54). The output of the MISO models was the number of NE cases in Belgium over the time period 1996 until 2008 and the inputs were average measured monthly precipitation (mm), and temperature (°C) as well as estimated carrying capacity (vole ha-1). The monthly values of carrying capacity (K) were estimated for the whole period by using an existing mechanistic SIR model. K is related to the variation in seed production in Northern Europe, which has an effect on the population of bank voles. In the future, such modelling approaches may be used to predict and monitor forthcoming NE cases based on climate and vegetation data as a tool for prevention of NE cases.",
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Amirpour Haredasht, S, Barrios, JM, Maes, P, Verstraeten, WW, Clement, J, Ducoffre, G, Lagrou, K, Van Ranst, M, Coppin, P, Berckmans, D & Aerts, JMFG 2011, 'A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium', Biosystems Engineering, vol. 109, no. 1, pp. 77-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2011.02.004

A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium. / Amirpour Haredasht, S.; Barrios, J.M.; Maes, P.; Verstraeten, W.W.; Clement, J.; Ducoffre, G.; Lagrou, K.; Van Ranst, M.; Coppin, P.; Berckmans, D.; Aerts, J.M.F.G.

In: Biosystems Engineering, Vol. 109, No. 1, 2011, p. 77-89.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium

AU - Amirpour Haredasht, S.

AU - Barrios, J.M.

AU - Maes, P.

AU - Verstraeten, W.W.

AU - Clement, J.

AU - Ducoffre, G.

AU - Lagrou, K.

AU - Van Ranst, M.

AU - Coppin, P.

AU - Berckmans, D.

AU - Aerts, J.M.F.G.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - ropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Population dynamics and infectious diseases in general, such as NE, have often been modelled with mechanistic SIR (Susceptible, Infective and Remove with immunity) models. Precipitation and temperature have been found to be indicators of NE, however most SIR models do not take them into account. The objective of this paper was to develop a dynamic model of incidences of NE in Belgium by taking into account climatological data. A multiple–input, single-output (MISO) transfer function was used to model the incidence of NE. In a first step, the NE cases were modelled based on data from 1996 until 2003 with an of 0.68. In the next step the MISO model was validated for incidences of NE in Belgium from 2003 to 2008 ( of 0.54). The output of the MISO models was the number of NE cases in Belgium over the time period 1996 until 2008 and the inputs were average measured monthly precipitation (mm), and temperature (°C) as well as estimated carrying capacity (vole ha-1). The monthly values of carrying capacity (K) were estimated for the whole period by using an existing mechanistic SIR model. K is related to the variation in seed production in Northern Europe, which has an effect on the population of bank voles. In the future, such modelling approaches may be used to predict and monitor forthcoming NE cases based on climate and vegetation data as a tool for prevention of NE cases.

AB - ropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus (PUUV), which is naturally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). Population dynamics and infectious diseases in general, such as NE, have often been modelled with mechanistic SIR (Susceptible, Infective and Remove with immunity) models. Precipitation and temperature have been found to be indicators of NE, however most SIR models do not take them into account. The objective of this paper was to develop a dynamic model of incidences of NE in Belgium by taking into account climatological data. A multiple–input, single-output (MISO) transfer function was used to model the incidence of NE. In a first step, the NE cases were modelled based on data from 1996 until 2003 with an of 0.68. In the next step the MISO model was validated for incidences of NE in Belgium from 2003 to 2008 ( of 0.54). The output of the MISO models was the number of NE cases in Belgium over the time period 1996 until 2008 and the inputs were average measured monthly precipitation (mm), and temperature (°C) as well as estimated carrying capacity (vole ha-1). The monthly values of carrying capacity (K) were estimated for the whole period by using an existing mechanistic SIR model. K is related to the variation in seed production in Northern Europe, which has an effect on the population of bank voles. In the future, such modelling approaches may be used to predict and monitor forthcoming NE cases based on climate and vegetation data as a tool for prevention of NE cases.

U2 - 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2011.02.004

DO - 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2011.02.004

M3 - Article

VL - 109

SP - 77

EP - 89

JO - Biosystems Engineering

JF - Biosystems Engineering

SN - 1537-5110

IS - 1

ER -

Amirpour Haredasht S, Barrios JM, Maes P, Verstraeten WW, Clement J, Ducoffre G et al. A dynamic data based model describing nephropathia epidemica in Belgium. Biosystems Engineering. 2011;109(1):77-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2011.02.004