A Bayes-competing risk model for the use of expert judgement in reliability estimation

F.P.A. Coolen; P.R. Mertens; M.J. Newby

doi:10.1016/0951-8320(92)90018-G

A Bayes-competing risk model for the use of expert judgement in reliability estimation

F.P.A. Coolen
, P.R. Mertens
, M.J. Newby

Mathematics and Computer Science

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

217 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In an analysis of the reliability of heat exchangers, a number of causes of failure and a number of potential failure patterns were identified. To allow a simplification of the analysis, five independent groups of failure causes were defined and formed the basis of a competing risks model. Further, lack of data and poor quality data required the experience of ‘experts’ to be used in a quantitative way through Bayesian methods. Lastly, to simplify the elicitation of the prior densities, a shape, scale and location parameter model for the failure time distributions was adopted.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	23-30
Journal	Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume	35
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(92)90018-G
Publication status	Published - 1992

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abstract = "In an analysis of the reliability of heat exchangers, a number of causes of failure and a number of potential failure patterns were identified. To allow a simplification of the analysis, five independent groups of failure causes were defined and formed the basis of a competing risks model. Further, lack of data and poor quality data required the experience of {\textquoteleft}experts{\textquoteright} to be used in a quantitative way through Bayesian methods. Lastly, to simplify the elicitation of the prior densities, a shape, scale and location parameter model for the failure time distributions was adopted.",

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A Bayes-competing risk model for the use of expert judgement in reliability estimation

Abstract

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