TY - JOUR
T1 - A Bayes-competing risk model for the use of expert judgement in reliability estimation
AU - Coolen, F.P.A.
AU - Mertens, P.R.
AU - Newby, M.J.
PY - 1992
Y1 - 1992
N2 - In an analysis of the reliability of heat exchangers, a number of causes of failure and a number of potential failure patterns were identified. To allow a simplification of the analysis, five independent groups of failure causes were defined and formed the basis of a competing risks model. Further, lack of data and poor quality data required the experience of ‘experts’ to be used in a quantitative way through Bayesian methods. Lastly, to simplify the elicitation of the prior densities, a shape, scale and location parameter model for the failure time distributions was adopted.
AB - In an analysis of the reliability of heat exchangers, a number of causes of failure and a number of potential failure patterns were identified. To allow a simplification of the analysis, five independent groups of failure causes were defined and formed the basis of a competing risks model. Further, lack of data and poor quality data required the experience of ‘experts’ to be used in a quantitative way through Bayesian methods. Lastly, to simplify the elicitation of the prior densities, a shape, scale and location parameter model for the failure time distributions was adopted.
U2 - 10.1016/0951-8320(92)90018-G
DO - 10.1016/0951-8320(92)90018-G
M3 - Article
SN - 0951-8320
VL - 35
SP - 23
EP - 30
JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety
IS - 1
ER -