A Bayes-competing risk model for the use of expert judgement in reliability estimation

F.P.A. Coolen, P.R. Mertens, M.J. Newby

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)
62 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In an analysis of the reliability of heat exchangers, a number of causes of failure and a number of potential failure patterns were identified. To allow a simplification of the analysis, five independent groups of failure causes were defined and formed the basis of a competing risks model. Further, lack of data and poor quality data required the experience of ‘experts’ to be used in a quantitative way through Bayesian methods. Lastly, to simplify the elicitation of the prior densities, a shape, scale and location parameter model for the failure time distributions was adopted.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23-30
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume35
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1992

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